← All tools

Bet portfolio

An initiative list hides its claims: everything on it reads as certain, nothing has a price for being wrong, and nothing ever dies. Write yours as explicit bets instead — stake, odds, payoff, and the line that kills it — and get a deck-ready board with the portfolio's real odds of losing money, plus the audits that shame the lines that can't say it straight.

Start typing — or load an example.

Export
History
4,000 paired seeded simulations · independent baseline + shared-outcome stress · only realised outcomes are coupled · parameter ranges remain independently sampled

Why state it as bets?

An initiative list is a place where claims go to hide. Every line reads as equally certain, nothing on it has a price for being wrong, and nothing on it is ever allowed to die — so the portfolio just grows until a re-org clears it. Restating each line as a bet forces the sentence a roadmap slide never makes you say out loud: "we're staking X at these odds for this payoff, and we fold when Y." A line that can't complete that sentence is the one worth questioning.

Every stake, odds and payoff is a 90% range, run through 4,000 paired seeded simulations. The per-bet band asks is this bet sound? The two portfolio readings then expose a dependence assumption most plans bury: the independent baseline resolves every bet separately; the shared-outcome stress couples only realised wins and losses while stake, odds and payoff ranges remain independently sampled. It is a stress, not a forecast or a fake correlation estimate. The audits surface what slides usually hide: NO KILL CRITERION, ODDS IMPLY CERTAINTY, and LOSES AT P50.