Roadmap
Now / next / later columns, WIP limits, deck export — the plan as an artefact, not a promise.
What are we doing, in what order?→ 02Timeline
Milestones with P50–P90 whiskers and a merge-risk verdict; the snapshot compare draws the slip slide.
When, honestly?→ 03Bets
The quarter as a blotter of stakes, odds and payoffs — concentration risk included.
Where is our stake, really?→ 04Rank
Weighted-criteria ranking with a robustness shuffle — does #1 survive your own uncertainty?
Which one, and is it stable?→ 05Duel
Pairwise showdowns when a list is too long to rank honestly in one pass.
This or that?→ 06Map
Two axes, labelled zones, presets — position the portfolio and argue about placement, not vibes.
Where does everything sit?→ 07Tree
Probability-weighted decision trees with expected value carried up the branches.
What is this path worth?→ 08Why
Outcome → assumptions → solutions; the argument drawn so the weak link is visible.
Why do we believe this?→ 09Wardley
Value-chain evolution maps — what to build, buy, or let commoditise.
What moves next?→ 10Premortem
Write the failure story first, price it into an EV register, promote the real risks.
How does this die?→ 11Fermi
Driver-tree estimation with ranges that confess what must be true for the answer to hold.
How big is it, roughly?→ 12Gauge
Collect a room's estimates before anyone anchors it — Delphi rounds, chips, calibrated ranges.
What does the room think?→ 13Alarm
Base-rate playground — how often a monitor that's “99% right” cries wolf.
Should this page me?→ 14Flow
Little's-law throughput sketches — where the queue actually is.
Why is it slow?→ 15Signal vs noise
Eight noisy quarters, one real shift — Deming's tampering and regression to the mean, made felt.
Did anything actually change?→ 16Paths
The questions inside the plan — what each answer buys, what happens either way, and whether the question can be answered at all.
What are we waiting to find out?→ 17Proxy Hunt
Stress-test whether a metric under pressure can quietly harm the outcome you want or one you need to protect.
What does this metric make easier to fake?→Case file
The binder above the instruments: paste each tool's URL as an exhibit and one link holds the whole decision — question, kit and verdict — behind a cover page.
Where's the whole case?→